Population Needs Assessment

Children and young people

Overview and key messages

Across the counties of Carmarthenshire, Ceredigion and Pembrokeshire, here collectively referred to as the Hywel Dda region of mid and west Wales, there are over 100,000 people under the age of 25, approximately 25% of the population.

It is estimated that 6,105 children and young people in the region live with a long-term condition or disability.

According to mid-year statistics from Stat Wales (2023), 49% of children and young people in the area live in Carmarthenshire, with 30% in Pembrokeshire and 21% in Ceredigion.

Read more on the link here: Population estimates by local authority and year

Although the population of children and young people up to the age of 25 is expected to remain relatively stable, the number of children aged 3-15 in the region is expected to decline by 8% by 2031.

The Capped 9-point score (Year 11 pupils’ best 9 results from qualifications available in Wales) is 361.7, above the Wales average of 353.8.

At 14%, the number of young people not in education, employment or training in West Wales is marginally lower than the Welsh average.

For policies and services, children and young people are considered under the following five groups:

First 1000 days: From conception to age 2.
2 to under 12:
12 to under 18: This is the standard definition of a young person in many legal and social contexts, though specific services may define this differently.
18 to under 21 (if in care): This extension is a key policy point for young people in care, providing them with continued support as they transition into adulthood.
21 to under 25 (if in care and in education): This category provides even more extended support for care leavers who are pursuing further education, acknowledging that they may need extra assistance to succeed.

Child poverty is a significant concern in West Wales, with rates consistently higher than the national average. Based on recent data (2022/23) from the End Child Poverty coalition, the percentage of children living in relative poverty (after housing costs) for each county is:

Pembrokeshire: 23.7%
Ceredigion: 25.4%
Carmarthenshire: 25.0%

Further information can be found on the link here: Child Poverty Statistics 2024 – End Child Poverty

Demographics and Trends

All three local authorities in West Wales are currently projected to have a lower percentage of young people than the national average. Projections for 2043, show that, young people aged 0-15 will account for 16.54% of the national population, whereas only 16.22% of the population in Carmarthenshire, 14.67% of the population in Pembrokeshire, and 13.64% of the population in Ceredigion will be made up of people aged 0-15.

Further information can be found on the link here: Population projections by local authority and year

In 2025 there were an estimated 6,105 children and young people with a long-term illness/disability – 3,116 in Carmarthenshire, 1,945 in Pembrokeshire, and 994 in Ceredigion. Projections for 2043 show a decrease to 5,652, with 2,986 in Carmarthenshire, 1,784 in Pembrokeshire, and 882 in Ceredigion.

Looked After Children (LAC) 0 to 17 per 100,000

In terms of the region’s number of Looked After Children (LAC), the data has changed since the COVID-19 pandemic.

Further information on the LAC statistics can be found on the link here: Children looked after at 31 March by local authority, gender and age

Hywel Dda Population Life Course (0 – 24 years) 2023 – 24

The Director of Public Health Annual Report, 2023-24 explains further information on the health and future of children and young people’s health and wellbeing in Hywel Dda. The full report can be found here: Public health annual reports – Hywel Dda University Health Board and includes the diagram and data below:

Care and Support Needs

Care and support needs for children and families span a wide range from universal, through early intervention, multiple needs and remedial intervention. Children and families will require different levels of care and support depending upon their presenting need and strengths.

The “Right Help at the Right Time” approach guides the availability of care and support in each locality. It provides guidance on the thresholds of need, while acknowledging that a child’s circumstances can vary across a spectrum. The approach emphasises that professional judgment should always be used in partnership with the family.

Current care and support provision

Children and young people have a range of care and support needs depending on their personal circumstances. Broadly speaking, this range will encompass:

Universal needs – for example, information and advice, low level family support, preventative services such as health visiting, early ante-natal provision, dietetic support and advice, childcare and careers advice
Additional needs and early intervention – such as improvement support for families, youth engagement, supporting young people into education and training, education inclusion and welfare

Multiple needs requiring coordinated multi-agency support to support children and families to address complex and/or entrenched needs
Need for remedial intervention to support children at risk.

Impact of Covid-19 Pandemic

The COVID-19 pandemic has significantly impacted the well-being of children and young people across the region.

Wellbeing and Mental Health

Wellbeing pressures remain elevated, especially around mental health and the early years, and services are still catching up from pandemic backlogs. CAMHS waits have been long in Hywel Dda: in 2023 the longest follow-up wait hit 99 weeks in the Hywel Dda area, per ITV Wales’ FOI-based report (May 2024).

Wider Wales evidence shows child mental-health need and service demand rose post-COVID, with paediatric and therapy waits peaking in 2020 and improving since, but still above historic baselines.

School Attendance

School attendance rates have not fully recovered to pre-pandemic levels.

Local authority reports for Carmarthenshire (2023/24) and Ceredigion (2024) both note attendance has improved since the pandemic but remains lower than before COVID, in line with national data for 2023–24. Pembrokeshire’s 2025 self-assessment says the same. (Drivers commonly cited across Wales include anxiety and illness.)

Read more on Carmarthenshire school attendance on the report here: Annual Report 2024 (Page 27)

Read more on Ceredigion school attendance on the report here Inspection report Ceredigion County Council 2024 (Page 6)

Read more on Pembrokeshire school attendance on the report here: SA1 – Well-being Objectives (continued) – Pembrokeshire County Council

Nationally in Wales, physical activity among secondary school pupils has shown a positive trend, increasing to levels comparable to pre-pandemic activity, reversing a decline observed since 2017. However, significant disparities persist: only 23% of boys and 14% of girls met the Chief Medical Officers’ guideline of at least 60 minutes of daily physical activity.

The Gaps: What's missing (gaps and areas for improvement).

There are several areas in which further improvement can be made. These are set out below against the core principles of the Social Services and Wellbeing (Wales) Act 2014:

Voice and control

Enhancing assessment and care planning processes to ensure that children, young people and their families have a voice in relation to what is important to them and the support they need.

Co-production

Improving engagement opportunities with Children, Young People and their Families to ensure their voice is heard and services are designed with them in mind.

Prevention and early intervention

Continue to strengthen the focus on prevention across the range of services, to build resilience of children, young people and families, reduce reliance on statutory services and facilitate de-escalation from intensive support where appropriate.

Wellbeing

Reducing the number of placement moves for children looked after by local authorities (CLA) and reducing reliance on residential care

Improving access to mental health services at an early stage, thus preventing the need for referral to Child and Adolescent Mental Health Services (CAMHS). Improving joint planning between CAMHS and learning disability services to ensure equitable service provision for children with neuro-developmental conditions.

Cooperation, partnership, and integration

Developing consistent methodology such as a Trauma Recovery Model to underpin care and support across the region

Developing a consistent, outcomes-based performance framework for children and young people’s services across the region

Developing links between Integrated Family Support Services (IFSS) and other Council services, such as adult care and housing, as well as community-based services, to help families back to independence and enable them to function effectively within their communities

Reconfiguring commissioning processes for high cost, low volume care and support packages for children with complex needs to ensure best outcomes and improve financial efficiency

Developing a whole system approach to supporting the mental health and emotional well-being of children and young people, such as the implementation of the NEST framework and the Whole School approach

Opportunities should be taken to take these areas forward in partnership across the region, thereby ensuring consistency of provision and enabling a ‘once for West Wales’ approach wherever possible.